| Author: John Jay 
 To the People of the State of New York:
 
 QUEEN ANNE, in her letter of the 1st July, 1706, to the Scotch 
				Parliament, makes some observations on the importance of the 
				UNION then forming between England and Scotland, which merit our 
				attention. I shall present the public with one or two extracts 
				from it: ``An entire and perfect union will be the solid 
				foundation of lasting peace: It will secure your religion, 
				liberty, and property; remove the animosities amongst 
				yourselves, and the jealousies and differences betwixt our two 
				kingdoms. It must increase your strength, riches, and trade; and 
				by this union the whole island, being joined in affection and 
				free from all apprehensions of different interest, will be 
				ENABLED TO RESIST ALL ITS ENEMIES.'' ``We most earnestly 
				recommend to you calmness and unanimity in this great and 
				weighty affair, that the union may be brought to a happy 
				conclusion, being the only EFFECTUAL way to secure our present 
				and future happiness, and disappoint the designs of our and your 
				enemies, who will doubtless, on this occasion, USE THEIR UTMOST 
				ENDEAVORS TO PREVENT OR DELAY THIS UNION.''
 
 It was remarked in the preceding paper, that weakness and 
				divisions at home would invite dangers from abroad; and that 
				nothing would tend more to secure us from them than union, 
				strength, and good government within ourselves. This subject is 
				copious and cannot easily be exhausted.
 
 The history of Great Britain is the one with which we are in 
				general the best acquainted, and it gives us many useful 
				lessons. We may profit by their experience without paying the 
				price which it cost them. Although it seems obvious to common 
				sense that the people of such an island should be but one 
				nation, yet we find that they were for ages divided into three, 
				and that those three were almost constantly embroiled in 
				quarrels and wars with one another. Notwithstanding their true 
				interest with respect to the continental nations was really the 
				same, yet by the arts and policy and practices of those nations, 
				their mutual jealousies were perpetually kept inflamed, and for 
				a long series of years they were far more inconvenient and 
				troublesome than they were useful and assisting to each other.
 
 Should the people of America divide themselves into three or 
				four nations, would not the same thing happen? Would not similar 
				jealousies arise, and be in like manner cherished? Instead of 
				their being ``joined in affection'' and free from all 
				apprehension of different ``interests,'' envy and jealousy would 
				soon extinguish confidence and affection, and the partial 
				interests of each confederacy, instead of the general interests 
				of all America, would be the only objects of their policy and 
				pursuits. Hence, like most other BORDERING nations, they would 
				always be either involved in disputes and war, or live in the 
				constant apprehension of them.
 
 The most sanguine advocates for three or four confederacies 
				cannot reasonably suppose that they would long remain exactly on 
				an equal footing in point of strength, even if it was possible 
				to form them so at first; but, admitting that to be practicable, 
				yet what human contrivance can secure the continuance of such 
				equality? Independent of those local circumstances which tend to 
				beget and increase power in one part and to impede its progress 
				in another, we must advert to the effects of that superior 
				policy and good management which would probably distinguish the 
				government of one above the rest, and by which their relative 
				equality in strength and consideration would be destroyed. For 
				it cannot be presumed that the same degree of sound policy, 
				prudence, and foresight would uniformly be observed by each of 
				these confederacies for a long succession of years.
 
 Whenever, and from whatever causes, it might happen, and happen 
				it would, that any one of these nations or confederacies should 
				rise on the scale of political importance much above the degree 
				of her neighbors, that moment would those neighbors behold her 
				with envy and with fear. Both those passions would lead them to 
				countenance, if not to promote, whatever might promise to 
				diminish her importance; and would also restrain them from 
				measures calculated to advance or even to secure her prosperity. 
				Much time would not be necessary to enable her to discern these 
				unfriendly dispositions. She would soon begin, not only to lose 
				confidence in her neighbors, but also to feel a disposition 
				equally unfavorable to them. Distrust naturally creates 
				distrust, and by nothing is good-will and kind conduct more 
				speedily changed than by invidious jealousies and uncandid 
				imputations, whether expressed or implied.
 
 The North is generally the region of strength, and many local 
				circumstances render it probable that the most Northern of the 
				proposed confederacies would, at a period not very distant, be 
				unquestionably more formidable than any of the others. No sooner 
				would this become evident than the NORTHERN HIVE would excite 
				the same ideas and sensations in the more southern parts of 
				America which it formerly did in the southern parts of Europe. 
				Nor does it appear to be a rash conjecture that its young swarms 
				might often be tempted to gather honey in the more blooming 
				fields and milder air of their luxurious and more delicate 
				neighbors.
 
 They who well consider the history of similar divisions and 
				confederacies will find abundant reason to apprehend that those 
				in contemplation would in no other sense be neighbors than as 
				they would be borderers; that they would neither love nor trust 
				one another, but on the contrary would be a prey to discord, 
				jealousy, and mutual injuries; in short, that they would place 
				us exactly in the situations in which some nations doubtless 
				wish to see us, viz., FORMIDABLE ONLY TO EACH OTHER.
 
 From these considerations it appears that those gentlemen are 
				greatly mistaken who suppose that alliances offensive and 
				defensive might be formed between these confederacies, and would 
				produce that combination and union of wills of arms and of 
				resources, which would be necessary to put and keep them in a 
				formidable state of defense against foreign enemies.
 
 When did the independent states, into which Britain and Spain 
				were formerly divided, combine in such alliance, or unite their 
				forces against a foreign enemy? The proposed confederacies will 
				be DISTINCT NATIONS. Each of them would have its commerce with 
				foreigners to regulate by distinct treaties; and as their 
				productions and commodities are different and proper for 
				different markets, so would those treaties be essentially 
				different. Different commercial concerns must create different 
				interests, and of course different degrees of political 
				attachment to and connection with different foreign nations. 
				Hence it might and probably would happen that the foreign nation 
				with whom the SOUTHERN confederacy might be at war would be the 
				one with whom the NORTHERN confederacy would be the most 
				desirous of preserving peace and friendship. An alliance so 
				contrary to their immediate interest would not therefore be easy 
				to form, nor, if formed, would it be observed and fulfilled with 
				perfect good faith.
 
 Nay, it is far more probable that in America, as in Europe, 
				neighboring nations, acting under the impulse of opposite 
				interests and unfriendly passions, would frequently be found 
				taking different sides. Considering our distance from Europe, it 
				would be more natural for these confederacies to apprehend 
				danger from one another than from distant nations, and therefore 
				that each of them should be more desirous to guard against the 
				others by the aid of foreign alliances, than to guard against 
				foreign dangers by alliances between themselves. And here let us 
				not forget how much more easy it is to receive foreign fleets 
				into our ports, and foreign armies into our country, than it is 
				to persuade or compel them to depart. How many conquests did the 
				Romans and others make in the characters of allies, and what 
				innovations did they under the same character introduce into the 
				governments of those whom they pretended to protect.
 
 Let candid men judge, then, whether the division of America into 
				any given number of independent sovereignties would tend to 
				secure us against the hostilities and improper interference of 
				foreign nations.
 
 PUBLIUS.
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