| Author: John Jay 
 To the People of the State of New York:
 
 MY LAST paper assigned several reasons why the safety of the 
				people would be best secured by union against the danger it may 
				be exposed to by JUST causes of war given to other nations; and 
				those reasons show that such causes would not only be more 
				rarely given, but would also be more easily accommodated, by a 
				national government than either by the State governments or the 
				proposed little confederacies.
 
 But the safety of the people of America against dangers from 
				FOREIGN force depends not only on their forbearing to give JUST 
				causes of war to other nations, but also on their placing and 
				continuing themselves in such a situation as not to INVITE 
				hostility or insult; for it need not be observed that there are 
				PRETENDED as well as just causes of war.
 
 It is too true, however disgraceful it may be to human nature, 
				that nations in general will make war whenever they have a 
				prospect of getting anything by it; nay, absolute monarchs will 
				often make war when their nations are to get nothing by it, but 
				for the purposes and objects merely personal, such as thirst for 
				military glory, revenge for personal affronts, ambition, or 
				private compacts to aggrandize or support their particular 
				families or partisans. These and a variety of other motives, 
				which affect only the mind of the sovereign, often lead him to 
				engage in wars not sanctified by justice or the voice and 
				interests of his people. But, independent of these inducements 
				to war, which are more prevalent in absolute monarchies, but 
				which well deserve our attention, there are others which affect 
				nations as often as kings; and some of them will on examination 
				be found to grow out of our relative situation and 
				circumstances.
 
 With France and with Britain we are rivals in the fisheries, and 
				can supply their markets cheaper than they can themselves, 
				notwithstanding any efforts to prevent it by bounties on their 
				own or duties on foreign fish.
 
 With them and with most other European nations we are rivals in 
				navigation and the carrying trade; and we shall deceive 
				ourselves if we suppose that any of them will rejoice to see it 
				flourish; for, as our carrying trade cannot increase without in 
				some degree diminishing theirs, it is more their interest, and 
				will be more their policy, to restrain than to promote it.
 
 In the trade to China and India, we interfere with more than one 
				nation, inasmuch as it enables us to partake in advantages which 
				they had in a manner monopolized, and as we thereby supply 
				ourselves with commodities which we used to purchase from them.
 
 The extension of our own commerce in our own vessels cannot give 
				pleasure to any nations who possess territories on or near this 
				continent, because the cheapness and excellence of our 
				productions, added to the circumstance of vicinity, and the 
				enterprise and address of our merchants and navigators, will 
				give us a greater share in the advantages which those 
				territories afford, than consists with the wishes or policy of 
				their respective sovereigns.
 
 Spain thinks it convenient to shut the Mississippi against us on 
				the one side, and Britain excludes us from the Saint Lawrence on 
				the other; nor will either of them permit the other waters which 
				are between them and us to become the means of mutual 
				intercourse and traffic.
 
 From these and such like considerations, which might, if 
				consistent with prudence, be more amplified and detailed, it is 
				easy to see that jealousies and uneasinesses may gradually slide 
				into the minds and cabinets of other nations, and that we are 
				not to expect that they should regard our advancement in union, 
				in power and consequence by land and by sea, with an eye of 
				indifference and composure.
 
 The people of America are aware that inducements to war may 
				arise out of these circumstances, as well as from others not so 
				obvious at present, and that whenever such inducements may find 
				fit time and opportunity for operation, pretenses to color and 
				justify them will not be wanting. Wisely, therefore, do they 
				consider union and a good national government as necessary to 
				put and keep them in SUCH A SITUATION as, instead of INVITING 
				war, will tend to repress and discourage it. That situation 
				consists in the best possible state of defense, and necessarily 
				depends on the government, the arms, and the resources of the 
				country.
 
 As the safety of the whole is the interest of the whole, and 
				cannot be provided for without government, either one or more or 
				many, let us inquire whether one good government is not, 
				relative to the object in question, more competent than any 
				other given number whatever.
 
 One government can collect and avail itself of the talents and 
				experience of the ablest men, in whatever part of the Union they 
				may be found. It can move on uniform principles of policy. It 
				can harmonize, assimilate, and protect the several parts and 
				members, and extend the benefit of its foresight and precautions 
				to each. In the formation of treaties, it will regard the 
				interest of the whole, and the particular interests of the parts 
				as connected with that of the whole. It can apply the resources 
				and power of the whole to the defense of any particular part, 
				and that more easily and expeditiously than State governments or 
				separate confederacies can possibly do, for want of concert and 
				unity of system. It can place the militia under one plan of 
				discipline, and, by putting their officers in a proper line of 
				subordination to the Chief Magistrate, will, as it were, 
				consolidate them into one corps, and thereby render them more 
				efficient than if divided into thirteen or into three or four 
				distinct independent companies.
 
 What would the militia of Britain be if the English militia 
				obeyed the government of England, if the Scotch militia obeyed 
				the government of Scotland, and if the Welsh militia obeyed the 
				government of Wales? Suppose an invasion; would those three 
				governments (if they agreed at all) be able, with all their 
				respective forces, to operate against the enemy so effectually 
				as the single government of Great Britain would?
 
 We have heard much of the fleets of Britain, and the time may 
				come, if we are wise, when the fleets of America may engage 
				attention. But if one national government, had not so regulated 
				the navigation of Britain as to make it a nursery for seamen--if 
				one national government had not called forth all the national 
				means and materials for forming fleets, their prowess and their 
				thunder would never have been celebrated. Let England have its 
				navigation and fleet--let Scotland have its navigation and 
				fleet--let Wales have its navigation and fleet--let Ireland have 
				its navigation and fleet--let those four of the constituent 
				parts of the British empire be be under four independent 
				governments, and it is easy to perceive how soon they would each 
				dwindle into comparative insignificance.
 
 Apply these facts to our own case. Leave America divided into 
				thirteen or, if you please, into three or four independent 
				governments--what armies could they raise and pay--what fleets 
				could they ever hope to have? If one was attacked, would the 
				others fly to its succor, and spend their blood and money in its 
				defense? Would there be no danger of their being flattered into 
				neutrality by its specious promises, or seduced by a too great 
				fondness for peace to decline hazarding their tranquillity and 
				present safety for the sake of neighbors, of whom perhaps they 
				have been jealous, and whose importance they are content to see 
				diminished? Although such conduct would not be wise, it would, 
				nevertheless, be natural. The history of the states of Greece, 
				and of other countries, abounds with such instances, and it is 
				not improbable that what has so often happened would, under 
				similar circumstances, happen again.
 
 But admit that they might be willing to help the invaded State 
				or confederacy. How, and when, and in what proportion shall aids 
				of men and money be afforded? Who shall command the allied 
				armies, and from which of them shall he receive his orders? Who 
				shall settle the terms of peace, and in case of disputes what 
				umpire shall decide between them and compel acquiescence? 
				Various difficulties and inconveniences would be inseparable 
				from such a situation; whereas one government, watching over the 
				general and common interests, and combining and directing the 
				powers and resources of the whole, would be free from all these 
				embarrassments, and conduce far more to the safety of the 
				people.
 
 But whatever may be our situation, whether firmly united under 
				one national government, or split into a number of 
				confederacies, certain it is, that foreign nations will know and 
				view it exactly as it is; and they will act toward us 
				accordingly. If they see that our national government is 
				efficient and well administered, our trade prudently regulated, 
				our militia properly organized and disciplined, our resources 
				and finances discreetly managed, our credit re-established, our 
				people free, contented, and united, they will be much more 
				disposed to cultivate our friendship than provoke our 
				resentment. If, on the other hand, they find us either destitute 
				of an effectual government (each State doing right or wrong, as 
				to its rulers may seem convenient), or split into three or four 
				independent and probably discordant republics or confederacies, 
				one inclining to Britain, another to France, and a third to 
				Spain, and perhaps played off against each other by the three, 
				what a poor, pitiful figure will America make in their eyes! How 
				liable would she become not only to their contempt but to their 
				outrage, and how soon would dear-bought experience proclaim that 
				when a people or family so divide, it never fails to be against 
				themselves.
 
 PUBLIUS.
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